Friday, July 08, 2005

Contrarian Demographics

Steve Sailer, as usual, has some great items on his homepage and blog—stuff you definitely won't find in the mainstream media (MSM), and backup up with good quantitative analysis (which you also won't find in the MSM).

How legal abortion hollowed out the black middle class
Uses a 1996 Brookings Institution policy brief called "An Analysis of Out-Of-Wedlock Births in the United States." The effect of legalized abortion on illegitimacy conformed to what anyone with their feet on the ground would expect (but our elites seem clueless about):

Before legalization, the birthrate for married black women was 129 and for unmarried black women 91. A decade later, the married black birth rate dropped from 129 to 93, while the unmarried black birth rate fell only from 91 to 86. So, social changes, including abortion legalization, had barely any effect on the unmarried black birth rate, but drove down the black married rate sharply.

Moreover, black women weren't getting married as much, in part because of the collapse of the shotgun wedding...

Interestingly the brief maintains that after Roe, "Sexual activity without commitment was increasingly expected in premarital relationships."
"Affordable Family Formation"—The Neglected Key To GOP's Future,
In this VDARE article Steve describes three differences between GOP and Democratic voters (Dirt, Mortgage, and Marriage Gaps) and advises the GOP to tell voters, "We're on the side of making it affordable for you, and your children and grandchildren, to form families. The Democrats are on the side of dying alone."
WSJ's Taranto pushes his "Roe Effect" half-truth again
Here Steve disputes the idea that the Democrats wouldn't have lost (or at least lost so badly) had they not aborted their future constituency (an idea that I've trumpetted before in this forum).

Also here's an interesting post on African economics at Contrarian Views: aid to Africa hurts the common people.

No comments: